Agenda with Bios: (pdf) (doc) Brief Schedule (pdf) (doc) Flyer
Biographies of Participants: bios
Conference Concept
Climate change has become virtually synonymous with global warming. But climate change in its larger sense has been a security problem for states since the time of “the Catastrophe” around 1200 BC. Climate change offers the most plausible explanation for the waves of migration and invasion that swept over Western civilization late in the second millennium BCE. Chronic drought or environmental crisis sent waves of people flooding into the Aegean and spreading out through the Levant, destroying ancient Troy and dozens of other cites in their path. Global warming is only the latest of the climate changes to pose security challenges for the world. It behooves us to examine this latest manifetation in the broadest possible context.
While few now deny that global warming and perhaps other forms of climate change are taking place, lively debate surrounds how rapidly it is occurring, how irreversible it is, and what impact it will have. While there is broad agreement that rapid climate change could significantly alter the world security environment, efforts to deal with the problem have been sluggish at best. It has proven difficult to get the security community to focus on this issue when political attention has been so concentrated on short-term goals. Dealing with the problem will require political will and commitment at all levels of government.
Much remains unclear. How robust are theories linking global climate change to conflict? Who would be the losers and winners in a changed environment? How might U.S. national security be affected? How should we approach the problem of global warming? And what measures should we take to be ready to prepare for/ deal with the kinds of instability that many think will ensue? What institutions and at what level (global, national, local) are most likely to produce useful results? What kinds of responses are appropriate? Should we focus more on adaptation or mitigation? What solutions have been suggested to date? Are these likely to be beneficial or to create a new set of security dilemmas?
The role of the military is of particular interest. If even some of the direst predictions come true, and rapid climate change leads to massive migration, failed states, flooding, resource scarcity, and other problems, the military will inevitably find itself involved. The military can take measures to mitigate climate change, assist in efforts to adapt to climate change, and prepare for the security challenges climate change may bring.
This conference will evaluate the nature and extent of the threat posed by climate change, and consider potential solutions. It will promote discussion between military officers and scholars and inform policy makers about the salient problems and possibilities that face us. It will establish and nurture relationships among the diverse organizations represented by symposium participants. It will focus in part on answering key questions posed by members of the interagency and international community who have identified climate change as a serious threat. It will also explore the significance of this issue for the U.S. military in general, and the Army in particular. It is obvious that, as the military prepares for the future, it should take into consideration the predictions of serious scholars of global climate change. But dealing with this problem could also bring positive benefits for the organization, contributing to improved public relations, helping build regional cooperation, and bolstering international confidence. In sum, this is an important and timely topic, deserving of serious analysis and discussion. s
